El Niño 2026/27: preparing for a hotter, drier season

Capstone Seeds

8 minutes ago

3 min read

What farmers should know for the 2026/27 season

El Niño conditions are now firmly established in the Pacific Ocean and are expected to strengthen further during the latter part of 2026. Current forecasts indicate that the 2026/27 summer could bring below-normal rainfall and above-normal temperatures across much of South Africa and Southern Africa.

For farmers, this means it is worth planning ahead and keeping a close eye on updated local and seasonal forecasts as the summer progresses.

What are the forecasts saying?

The South African Weather Service (SAWS) indicates that below-normal rainfall is currently the most likely outcome for most of South Africa during October to December 2026, together with above-normal temperatures. A similar pattern is forecast for November 2026 to January 2027.

The wider SADC regional outlook also favours below-normal rainfall across much of central and southern Southern Africa during the 2026/27 rainy season. This includes most of South Africa, Botswana, Namibia, Zimbabwe, southern Zambia and parts of Mozambique and Angola.

How strong is the current El Niño?

NOAA's Climate Prediction Center reported in September that El Niño is strengthening, with a greater than 90% chance of a very strong event during the 2026/27 period. NOAA also indicated a 75% chance that the October-December period could meet its definition of a historic El Niño event.

The World Meteorological Organization similarly reports that El Niño is expected to strengthen further and has forecast a near 100% likelihood of the event persisting through February 2027.

What could this mean for farmers?

A hotter and drier season can place additional pressure on:

Soil moisture and water availability

Crop establishment and germination

Pasture growth and grazing availability

Livestock water requirements

Crop and forage yields

Heat stress in livestock

Fire and veldfire risk

The exact impact will depend on local rainfall, soil moisture, temperatures and other weather systems. El Niño does not mean every farming area will experience drought, and rainfall can still occur during an El Niño season.

Plan ahead with Capstone Seeds

YELLOW HYBRID MAIZE -

CAP 95-22

CAP 95-22 is a prolific, medium-maturity yellow hybrid suited to both silage and grain production. With large plants, long cylindrical cobs and semi-dent grain, it offers good grain yield potential of up to 12 t/ha under favourable conditions. The hybrid has good drought tolerance, strong standability and resistance to MSV, with acceptable resistance to PHAEO.

HYBRID FORAGE SORGHUM -

SWEETFEED SUPER

Sweetfeed Super is a vigorous three-way cross hybrid forage sorghum, reaching up to 3 m at maturity. With a high leaf-to-stem ratio, good standability and high protein and sugar content, it is suited to silage and grazing in winter. Its versatility allows for several grazing opportunities or use as standing forage into late autumn.

HYBRID FORAGE SORGHUM -

MULTICUT

Multicut is a versatile, high-energy forage hybrid bred for strong dry matter, protein and energy production. It can be grazed from 3-6 weeks after planting and used for grazing, hay, silage or green chop. With rapid regrowth and good drought and disease tolerance, Multicut can provide valuable forage through challenging growing conditions.

ERAGROSTIS TEFF -

SA BROWN

SA Brown is a fast-maturing summer annual Teff, reaching maturity in approximately 10 - 12 weeks. Primarily used for hay production, it is suited to a wide range of growing conditions. As a shallow-rooted, small-seeded grass, it requires a fine, firm seedbed for good establishment. The recommended seeding rate is 15 kg/ha, with rolling recommended for better germination.

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Information based on the latest September 2026 climate outlooks from the South African Weather Service, SADC Climate Services Centre, NOAA Climate Prediction Center and World Meteorological Organization. Forecasts can change as new data becomes available.

Contact the Capstone Seeds team to find the

right variety for the season ahead.

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MAIZE & SORGHUM SOLUTIONS

For more information contact a Sale Representative in your area:

Mark Wattam - Commercial Manager

+27 82 603 8471 | mark@capstoneseeds.com